General idea

Following the ISIPTA tradition, every paper and poster-abstract will be presented twice. First in a plenary session, and then in a discussion session. Plenary presentations are brief and are not followed by questions by the audience.
Questions and more detailed interactions are reserved for the discussion sessions, where authors will be available to discuss their paper or abstract with the help of electronic posters and any other supplementary material they might wish to use. Author instructions for the plenary and poster presentations are available in this link: Instructions.

Plenary presentations will be virtual, and are hosted by ResearchersOne. The discussion sessions will take place in the virtual space Gather.

Programme per day

Link to Google Calendar with Conference Program

All times in Central European Summer Time (UTC +2)

Tuesday 6 July
14:00 16:15   Opening & Session 1
16:30 17:45   Keynote by Marco Zaffalon
  Imprecise probability in causal-AI wonderland
18:00 20:15 Session 2

Wednesday 7 July
14:00 16:15 Session 3
16:30 17:45   Keynote by Elias Bareinboim
18:00 20:15 Session 4

Thursday 8 July
14:00 16:15 Session 5
16:30 17:45   Keynote by Lars Peter Hansen
  Uncertainty Spillovers for Markets and Policy
18:00 20:15 Session 6

Friday 9 July
14:00 16:15 Session 7
16:30 17:45   SIPTA Meeting
18:00 19:00   Awards and closing

Contributions per session

Session 1

Plenary: 14:00 - 16:15 Chair: Ryan Martin
  • Alexander Erreygers and Jasper De Bock
    Extending the Domain of Imprecise Jump Processes From Simple Variables to Measurable Ones

  • Serafín Moral-García and Joaquín Abellán
    Basic Probability Assignments Representable via Belief Intervals for Singletons in Dempster-Shafer Theory

  • Paolo Baldi and Hykel Hosni
    Logical Approximations of Qualitative Probability

  • Alessio Benavoli, Alessandro Facchini and Marco Zaffalon
    Quantum Indistinguishability Through Exchangeable Desirable Gambles

  • Arthur Van Camp, Kevin Blackwell and Jason Konek
    Independent Natural Extension for Choice Functions

  • Tathagata Basu, Matthias Troffaes and Jochen Einbeck
    Bayesian Adaptive Selection under Prior Ignorance

  • Masad Alrasheedi, Tahani Coolen-Maturi and Frank Coolen
    Constructing Classification Trees with NPI-based Thresholds for Continuous Attributes

  • Renato Pelessoni and Paolo Vicig
    Jensen-Like Inequalities for Imprecise Previsions

  • Julian Rodemann and Thomas Augustin
    Accounting for Imprecision of Model Specification in Bayesian Optimization

Session 2

Plenary: 18:00 - 20:15 Chair: Matthias Troffaes
  • Esther Anna Corsi, Tommaso Flaminio and Hykel Hosni
    When Belief Functions and Lower Probabilities are Indistinguishable

  • Rafael Cabañas and Alessandro Antonucci
    CREPO: An Open Repository to Benchmark Credal Network Algorithm

  • Catrin Campbell-Moore
    Probability Filters as a Model of Belief

  • Nicholas Syring and Ryan Martin
    Stochastic Optimization for Numerical Evaluation of Imprecise Probabilities

  • Gert de Cooman and Jasper De Bock
    Randomness and Imprecision: A Discussion of Recent Results

  • Glauber de Bona, Victor Hugo Nascimento Rocha and Fabio Cozman
    Epistemic Argumentation with Conditional Probabilities and Labeling Constraints

  • Pierre E. Jacob, Ruobin Gong, Paul T. Edlefsen and Arthur P. Dempster
    A Gibbs Sampler for a Class of Random Convex Polytopes

  • Serafín Moral, Andrés Cano, Manuel Gómez-Olmedo
    Hierarchical Probability Intervals

  • Marshall Abrams
    Time Scale Relativity of Objective Imprecise Probability

Session 3

Plenary: 14:00 - 16:15 Chair: Alexander Erreygers
  • Marc Fischer and Alexis Vignes
    An Imprecise Bayesian Approach to Thermal Runaway Probability

  • Arianna Casanova, Alessio Benavoli and Marco Zaffalon
    Nonlinear Desirability as a Linear Classification Problem

  • Nawapon Nakharutai and Matthias Troffaes
    Improving Algorithms for Decision Making with the Hurwicz Criterion

  • Patrick Michael Schwaferts and Thomas Augustin
    Imprecise Hypothesis-Based Bayesian Decision Making with Composite Hypotheses

  • Floris Persiau, Jasper De Bock and Gert de Cooman
    A Remarkable Equivalence between Non-Stationary Precise and Stationary Imprecise Uncertainty Models in Computable Randomness

  • Andrey G. Bronevich and Igor N. Rozenberg
    Generalized Hartley Measures on Credal Sets

  • Max Nendel
    Wasserstein Perturbations of Markovian Transition Probabilities

  • Thomas Fetz
    Computing Upper Probabilities Using Global Optimization Algorithms Together With Importance Sampling Techniques

  • Tijn Centen, Cassio de Campos, Thomas Krak and Erik Quaeghebeur
    Beyond Tree-Shaped Credal Sum-Product Networks

Session 4

Plenary: 18:00 - 20:15 Chair: Davide Petturiti
  • Serena Doria
    Credal Sets of Coherent Conditional Probabilities defined by Hausdorff Measures

  • Juerg Kohlas, Arianna Casanova and Marco Zaffalon
    Information Algebras of Coherent Sets of Gambles in General Possibility Spaces

  • Jasper De Bock and Natan T'Joens
    Average Behaviour of Imprecise Markov Chains: A Single Pointwise Ergodic Theorem for Six Different Models

  • Marco De Angelis, Roberto Rocchetta, Ander Gray and Scott Ferson
    Constructing Consonant Predictive Beliefs from Data with Scenario Theory

  • Leonardo Cella and Ryan Martin
    Valid Inferential Models for Prediction in Supervised Learning Problems

  • Ruobin Gong, Joseph B. Kadane, Mark J. Schervish and Teddy Seidenfeld
    Total Evidence and Learning with Imprecise Probabilities

  • Christoph Jansen, Georg Schollmeyer and Thomas Augustin
    Elicitation of Preference Systems: Two Procedures and their Application to Decision Making under Severe Uncertainty

  • Pablo Ramsés Alonso Martín, Ignacio Montes and Enrique Miranda
    Distortion Models for the Probability of Rare Events: an Application on Human Reliability

  • Aaditya Ramdas, Johannes Ruf, Martin Larsson and Wouter Koolen
    How Can One Test if a Binary Sequence is Exchangeable?

Session 5

Plenary: 14:00 - 16:15 Chair: Nawapon Nakharutai
  • Sébastien Destercke, Ignacio Montes and Enrique Miranda
    Processing Multiple Distortion Models: a Comparative Study

  • Dominik Hose and Michael Hanss
    A Recursive Formulation of Possibilistic Filters

  • Alberto Termine, Alessandro Antonucci, Alessandro Facchini and Giuseppe Primiero
    Robust Model Checking with Imprecise Markov Reward Models

  • Davide Petturiti and Barbara Vantaggi
    Betting Schemes for Assessing Coherent Numerical and Comparative Conditional Possibilities

  • Benjamin Quost
    Decision-Making from Partial Instances by Active Feature Querying

  • Antoine Ajenjo, Emmanuel Ardillon, Vincent Chabridon, Scott Cogan and Emeline Sadoulet-Reboul
    An Info-Gap Framework for Comparing Epistemic Uncertainty Models in Hybrid Structural Reliability Analysis

  • Marc Fischer
    On the Principal Principle and Imprecise Subjective Bayesianism

  • Abdulmajeed Alharbi, Frank P. A. Coolen and Tahani Coolen-Maturi
    Direct Nonparametric Predictive Inference Classification Trees

  • Keano De Vos, Gert de Cooman, Jasper De Bock, Natan T'Joens and Alexander Erreygers
    Modelling Uncertainty in Quantum Mechanics using Imprecise Probabilities

Session 6

Plenary: 18:00 - 20:15 Chair: Fabio Cozman
  • Serafín Moral-García, Javier García Castellano, Carlos J. Mantas Ruiz and Joaquín Abellán
    Using Credal C4.5 for Calibrated Label Ranking in Multi-Label Classification

  • Yonatan Carlos Carranza Alarcón and Sébastien Destercke
    Distributionally Robust, Skeptical Binary Inferences in Multi-Label Problems

  • Gregory Wheeler
    Discounting Desirable Gambles

  • Rupert Freeman, David Pennock, Daniel Reeves, David Rothschild and Bo Waggoner
    Towards a Theory of Confidence in Market-Based Predictions

  • Georg Schollmeyer
    Computing Simple Bounds for Regression Estimates for Linear Regression with Interval-valued Covariates

  • Ignacio Montes
    On the Comonotone Natural Extension of Marginal p-Boxes

  • Giacomo Molinari
    An Accuracy Argument for Coherent Lower Previsions

  • Michele Caprio and Ruobin Gong
    Dynamic Imprecise Probability Kinematics

  • Arne Decadt
    Decide Quicker with Total Choice Functions

Session 7

Plenary: 14:00 - 16:15 Chair: Sébastien Destercke
  • Love Ekenberg and Mats Danielson
    Probabilistic Risk Management in Project Portfolios

  • Haifei Zhang, Benjamin Quost and Marie-Hélène Masson
    Cautious Random Forests: a new Decision Strategy and some Experiment

  • Marco Zaffalon and Enrique Miranda
    The Sure Thing

  • Dominik Kreiss, Georg Schollmeyer and Thomas Augustin
    Towards Improving Electoral Forecasting by Including Undecided Voters and Interval-Valued Prior Knowledge

  • Natan T'Joens and Jasper De Bock
    Global Upper Expectations for Discrete-Time Stochastic Processes: In Practice, They Are All The Same!

  • Ander Gray, Dominik Hose, Marco De Angelis, Michael Hanss and Scott Ferson
    Dependent Possibilistic Arithmetic using Copulas

  • Thomas Krak
    An Efficient Lower Transition Rate Operator for the Sensitivity Analysis of Continuous-Time Markov Chains

  • Fernando Reche, María Morales and Antonio Salmeron
    Measuring Dispersion and Concordance of Real-valued Functions With Respect To Fuzzy Measures

  • Tathagata Basu, Matthias Troffaes and Jochen Einbeck
    Robust Bayesian Causal Inference for High-Dimensional Problems


Important dates

  • Submission deadlines:
    • Long and short papers: February 10th, 2021.
    • Title and abstract: February 20th, 2021.
    • Full paper: February 28th, 2021.
    • 1-page abstracts: April 20th, 2021.
    • Poster abstracts: May 15th, 2021.
    • Poster abstracts final version: June 15th, 2021.
    • Upload poster files to Researchers.One: June 28th, 2021.
  • Paper notification: April 15th, 2021.
  • Paper final version due: May 10th, 2021.


ISIPTA 2021 is organised by the UTAI group, a research group of the Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, University of Granada.

For info about the conference, contact For comments about the website, contact Manuel Gómez-Olmedo.